Where is the future market trend of lubricants
The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" has passed, and Double Eleven is coming soon, and in this traditional bulk commodity peak season, the base oil market has not seen a significant improvement. Although entering September and October, most of the terminal companies are still waiting and watching, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is slowly increasing. Most of the refineries focus on digesting inventory, and they will enter the market again after the National Day holiday; plus the refineries such as Formosa Plastics and Jingmen Petrochemical at the end of the month The overhaul was completed and shipments were made at the beginning of October. The market supply has increased. Therefore, most of the market prices have stabilized, and individual models have fallen at the end of the month.
Crude oil: due to the damage to the supply of crude oil affected by the typhoon and the continued positive support caused by the US sanctions on Iran, international oil prices continued to rise at the beginning of the month; after mid-year, the increase in production by OPEC and Russia was bad for the oil market, and Sino-US trade Disputes have triggered market concerns about the outlook for the economy and energy demand and have also restrained the oil market. However, the US sanctions on Iran and required allies to reduce oil imports from Iran to zero has caused market concerns. Iran’s oil output has shrunk and its expectations are reduced. The oil market has always been positive in the near term, so crude oil has recently moved up.
From the perspective of supply and demand: the entire base oil market is in a situation of oversupply. Although affected by the environmental storm in the second half of the year, the overall output of the market has declined significantly, and some companies have stopped production. However, terminal companies are also affected by environmental issues. In the state of shutdown, some lubricants companies mainly purchase on-demand.
Lubricants are mainly used in automobiles, steel, aviation, ships, hydraulics, machinery, etc. Among them, automotive lubricants and industrial lubricants account for about 80% of total lubricant demand. The market demand for industrial oil has declined to a certain extent compared with previous years. Some downstream companies responded that this year was greatly affected by environmental issues. Many end-users of industrial oil have been suspended due to environmental issues, which greatly affected the market demand for industrial oil.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the increase in base oil market demand cannot keep up with the increase in market supply, and the oversupply situation in the base oil market is difficult to alleviate. With the demand for environmental protection, the quality of lubricating oil has increased, and the oil demand of lubricating oil customers It will also gradually increase the use of Type II and Type III oils from Type I oil, and the price of base oil will remain weak in the market outlook.